What have been the effects of halving on Bitcoin’s price?
In Bitcoin’s history, we had 3 halvings. When Bitcoin Mining (BTC) was launched, the miners received 50 BTC by successfully mining a block. In 2012 this reward was reduced to 25 BTC, in 2016 it was reduced to 12.5 BTC, and now in 2020 it’s 6.25 BTC, after the third halving. In short, Bitcoin mining is more difficult and more expensive.
Each halving has definitely had an impact on the price, but never in the short term and this time it’s no different. Six months after the third halving, which took place in May, it hasn’t yet been possible to measure the direct effects on the price of Bitcoin, resulting from cutting emissions, creating a scarcity based on a mathematical concept that simulates the scarcity of gold. Why haven’t we seen the effects of the halving on the price of Bitcoin yet?
After the first halving, the price increased from $12 in November 2012 to a high of $1,100 in November 2013 (12 months later). Similarly, the second halving increased sharply 11 months later, from $650 in July 2016 to over $2,500 in May 2017. The most direct interpretation of this is that the halving introduces a restriction of supply, driving demand, always between 200 days and 16 months.
The concept behind this phenomenon is known as Expansion Cycles, where the statistical model known as Stock-to-flow, a concept created by the analyst popularly known as PlanB. For PlanB, the next Expansion Cycle will take Bitcoin to $55,000.
PlanB’s $55,000 forecast, based on Stock-to-Flow, is based on the relationship between scarcity, current supply, and the amount of new issuance of an asset to determine the impact on price. This same model recorded the peak of $20,000 reached by Bitcoin at the end of 2017, approximately one year after the previous reduction by half.
Increasing the hash rate as a thermometer
Although miners receive fewer Bitcoins after each halving, according to PlanB, the Bitcoin hashrate (the technical term used to measure the computing power of the Bitcoin logical network) has skyrocketed by more than 6,800%. Despite the growing fears of some that the miners might capitulate, they were constantly putting more computing power into maintaining the network.
The hash rate reached an impressive 150 exahashes after 11 years. To understand this, 1 exahash is equal to 1 million times 1 terahash. This computing power, concentrated in Bitcoin mining, makes your network impregnable to any DDOS attack, for example. The Bitcoin network has been running uninterrupted for 11 years without ever being paralyzed by any event.
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What is the effect of this on the price? The price of Bitcoin is intrinsically related to the difficulty of its exploitation, that is, the more difficult it is to extract it, the more expensive it is to extract it and this cost tends to be passed on to the final price. In a simple equation between production, supply and demand.